Saturday, 19 March 2011

Japan Nuclear Crisis-Best technical details still at JAIF:

The last 36hrs have seen more of the information being given out by the Japanese Government and TEPCOE, but I believe that the situation is still much worse than the public is being told.
I will do a more detailed analysis soon, but the basic situation is still the same. Unit #3 is still in the process of melting down both it's core full of MOX, and it's storage pond. Unit #4 has a 2 packed fuel ponds melting down. Units #1 and 2 have serious current problems. Units #5 and 6 will also melt their ponds if water cannot be maintained.
They seem to have made a few feeble attempts to spray water on Unit #3 with helicopters and water cannon, but the amounts of water are insignificant and their ability to get the water where they need it is insufficient.
Radiation levels are rising at and around the plant. Buried in the data already are reports of workers being taken to hospital due to massive radiation exposure. How long work can continue at all is now the question.
Any containment effort at this point is at least on a scale of months. As the multiple meltdowns proceed and cause further damage radiation will be spewing from the plant. Radioactive dust will be spread in EVERY direction by the wind over coming days, weeks, months, hopefully not years...
The only good news is no graphite dust as seen at Chernobyl. This will help limit how far the radioactive cloud travels, but any explosion creates dust which can carry the radioactivity. The spread of radioactive dust is assured.
I have not located any solution to this problem as of yet, and unfortunately, neither has the Japanese Government or TEPCO. To start, though, I believe an 80-100km evacuation is in order. Tokyo is approximately 238km away and hopefully not in great danger, but it is easy to see scenarios which require evacuation of this metropolis as well.
My thoughts are still with the workers giving their lives on site in what looks like a so far useless effort to stave off the unthinkable.


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