The science is simple. Nuclear fuel rods will heat up, melt, and then burn if they are not cooled.
Examination of the heat, pressure and radiation data from Fukushima tells us the worst. Efforts to cool the nuclear fuel with sea water have compounded the already difficult problem of cooling the tonnes of nuclear fuel in the shattered plant. The salt buildup created virtually guarantees that large areas of the fuel are now unreachable by circulating water. A little progress has been made in cooling some areas, but fuel in many areas is receiving little or no cooling.
Fuel rods are melting at a number of locations at the plant. Many of these rods are receiving no cooling. They do not appear to be burning much yet, but they will be soon. Once rods start burning, radiation release at the site will become so lethal that all further effort to cool the fuel will stop. More fuel will burn, radiation levels will rise, and so on in a vicious loop.
The Japanese Government has still not admitted to the seriousness of the problem. I feel that the problem is so large that they can see no rational solution. The Entire country of Japan is in dire peril. To a lesser extent, the entire world.
A significant percentage the nuclear fuel on-site is at risk of melting and burning. This includes the common spent fuel pond and perhaps worst, the tonnes of plutonium in Unit #3. Once the plutonium starts burning it will leave a trail of uninhabitable death in whichever direction the wind blows and the water flows.
If you can leave Japan, I would recommend doing so now before it becomes impossible.
I dislike alarmists, and know I must sound like one, but the evidence is clear. I have no agenda. I have just looked at the data and science that is available to us all. I have provided most of the important links earlier in my blog, but it is not that hard to find the data any longer. The radioactive elements being released prove fuel is melting. The data shows that a number of locations at the plant have fuel that is continuing to heat. Burning is inevitable.
When the fuel seriously starts to burn, black smoke will start to rise in earnest. This smoke will be roughly equivalent to that released at Chernobyl (without graphite), but will continue and grow in quantity and radioactivity as more fuel burns. This event will not blow itself apart and become less dangerous as at Chernobyl. It will continue and grow. When the fuel in Unit #3 starts burning it will mark just the beginning of the single most catastrophic event humankind has brought on itself so far. The idea of the common spent fuel pond burning is so terrible I cannot comment sensibly on it.
Melting fuel can accumulate into a critical mass.
It is probable that we will see a lot more black smoke soon. Probably in the next 48hrs. At some point after that, we will probably see more explosions, some hydrogen, and probably some nuclear. One or more small criticalites are again horrible to contemplate, but are possible if not probable. If and when they happen, especially in Unit #3, a massive release of radioactive materials, dust, and particles will occur.
Once again, I hope the brave workers perform a miracle and save the plant. Unfortunately the data and science say that this is doubtful.
Once again, If you can leave Japan, I would recommend doing so now before it becomes impossible.
AaronC
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