There is little question left that the entire Fukushima plant is going to be evacuated soon. The exhausted workers usefulness is almost at its end.
Nobody knows how bad it will get now...
Tuesday 29 March 2011
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Tragedy "far beyond that of Chernobyl" probable.
Highly radioactive water fills the basements. Plutonium has been being released for over a week. The temperatures that they can still measure are rising. Reports are that unit #3 has melted through the bottom of its containment vessel.
There is little question left that the entire Fukushima plant is going to be evacuated soon. The exhausted workers usefulness is almost at its end.
Nobody knows how bad it will get now...
There is little question left that the entire Fukushima plant is going to be evacuated soon. The exhausted workers usefulness is almost at its end.
Nobody knows how bad it will get now...
Saturday 26 March 2011
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Governments and industry doing the usual spin while disaster turns into catastrophe.
It has become obvious to many that the scale of this disaster is being hidden from the public.
Avoiding panic is generally a good idea, but a some panic is probably in order here. Actions being taken in response to this disaster are being driven by forces distorted by many agendas. As a result, actions that should be taken to keep the disaster from multiplying into a complete catastrophe are not being taken.
There is nothing new about our being lied to, but Fukushima presents our entire population with a new and unprecedented level of danger. Huge and entrenched interests; government, industry, and private are trying to spin this disaster like they did with Bhopal, Chernobyl, Deepwater Horizon, and many others.
The first part of good disaster spin is to minimize the scale of the problem. The powers that be are hiding and distorting the facts about radiation release from Fukushima and about how damaged the plant really is. They hope to contain the event and then downplay how bad it really was for ever after. Releasing the data, evacuating the responsible areas, and entombing the plant are all actions that defeat this spin effort. So actions to protect the spin are taken instead of actions with the most hope of actually mitigating this disaster.
Unfortunately, the worst case scenarios at Fukushima become more probable with every hour's passing. This is not Bhopal, where the chemical fire eventually ran out of fuel. This is not a BP oil well in the gulf that can be capped and forgotten. This is not even Chernobyl where one reactor was stabilized and entombed by a massive government effort.
As the spin machine run by the powers that be tries to decide where this event fits between Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, I would draw a different comparison. At Fukushima we have three Three Mile Islands each of which has also suffered physical plant damage comparable to Chernobyl which prevents repair of cooling function. A total of over 1.7 million kg of spent fuel is in danger of melting and burning. This event dwarfs Chernobyl and Three Mile Island combined. It may end up dwarfing every nuclear event in our history, including Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Fukushima has no comparison and will almost certainly set the new benchmark.
Core vessels have been breached. Steam/hydrogen explosion of a containment vessel and/or a major rod fire are probable events soon. Once this occurs, further efforts to stave off complete catastrophe become next to impossible due to lethal radiation levels around the plant.
The results of this spin, deception, and misdirected action will have global consequences on a scale never seen before. If there was a time in history where our entrenched powers need to change their ways and act in the best interests of humanity, it is now.
Continuing to hide from the reality at Fukushima may be a critical mistake.
It seems to me that the first step in dealing with a problem is to understand its scope. The world needs full disclosure immediately. A massive and well directed response must be undertaken immediately.
Scott Nance blogged at http://networkedblogs.com/fU4SY that, "Three groups – Friends of the Earth, the Nuclear Information and Resource Service, and Physicians for Social Responsibility – announced Friday that they have filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to get to the bottom of what led the U.S. government to call for a 50-mile evacuation radius for Americans near the Japanese reactor crisis in Fukushima."
I applaud the effort, but we need more and we need it yesterday.
The world needs to know the facts, and appropriate action needs to be developed and implemented to respond to the worst nuclear disaster in our history. If we act quickly and are lucky we may stave off the unthinkable. If we continue with business as usual it may cost us more than we can afford to pay ...
AaronC
Avoiding panic is generally a good idea, but a some panic is probably in order here. Actions being taken in response to this disaster are being driven by forces distorted by many agendas. As a result, actions that should be taken to keep the disaster from multiplying into a complete catastrophe are not being taken.
There is nothing new about our being lied to, but Fukushima presents our entire population with a new and unprecedented level of danger. Huge and entrenched interests; government, industry, and private are trying to spin this disaster like they did with Bhopal, Chernobyl, Deepwater Horizon, and many others.
The first part of good disaster spin is to minimize the scale of the problem. The powers that be are hiding and distorting the facts about radiation release from Fukushima and about how damaged the plant really is. They hope to contain the event and then downplay how bad it really was for ever after. Releasing the data, evacuating the responsible areas, and entombing the plant are all actions that defeat this spin effort. So actions to protect the spin are taken instead of actions with the most hope of actually mitigating this disaster.
Unfortunately, the worst case scenarios at Fukushima become more probable with every hour's passing. This is not Bhopal, where the chemical fire eventually ran out of fuel. This is not a BP oil well in the gulf that can be capped and forgotten. This is not even Chernobyl where one reactor was stabilized and entombed by a massive government effort.
As the spin machine run by the powers that be tries to decide where this event fits between Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, I would draw a different comparison. At Fukushima we have three Three Mile Islands each of which has also suffered physical plant damage comparable to Chernobyl which prevents repair of cooling function. A total of over 1.7 million kg of spent fuel is in danger of melting and burning. This event dwarfs Chernobyl and Three Mile Island combined. It may end up dwarfing every nuclear event in our history, including Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Fukushima has no comparison and will almost certainly set the new benchmark.
Core vessels have been breached. Steam/hydrogen explosion of a containment vessel and/or a major rod fire are probable events soon. Once this occurs, further efforts to stave off complete catastrophe become next to impossible due to lethal radiation levels around the plant.
The results of this spin, deception, and misdirected action will have global consequences on a scale never seen before. If there was a time in history where our entrenched powers need to change their ways and act in the best interests of humanity, it is now.
Continuing to hide from the reality at Fukushima may be a critical mistake.
It seems to me that the first step in dealing with a problem is to understand its scope. The world needs full disclosure immediately. A massive and well directed response must be undertaken immediately.
Scott Nance blogged at http://networkedblogs.com/fU4SY that, "Three groups – Friends of the Earth, the Nuclear Information and Resource Service, and Physicians for Social Responsibility – announced Friday that they have filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to get to the bottom of what led the U.S. government to call for a 50-mile evacuation radius for Americans near the Japanese reactor crisis in Fukushima."
I applaud the effort, but we need more and we need it yesterday.
The world needs to know the facts, and appropriate action needs to be developed and implemented to respond to the worst nuclear disaster in our history. If we act quickly and are lucky we may stave off the unthinkable. If we continue with business as usual it may cost us more than we can afford to pay ...
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Bill Nye says Fukushima repair improbable. Entomb now. Plutonium being released.
Bill Nye (on CNN) gives conservative but realistic assessment of just how serious situation is at Fukushima.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HINYaqt2Cas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HINYaqt2Cas
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Fukushima-Radiation-Updated Links List
All of the information is out there ...
IAEA
METI
TEPCO
JAIF
Japan Radiation maximum by prefecture
NHK World English
NHK World TV English
Mainichi Daily News
NY Times Status Updates
Fukushima plant photograph - Updated hourly
Nuclear Fuel Pools
Hirose Takashi Interview
Decontamination Threshold
Marvin Resnikoff Article
Dr. Michael Allen Article
IAEA
METI
TEPCO
JAIF
Japan Radiation maximum by prefecture
NHK World English
NHK World TV English
Mainichi Daily News
NY Times Status Updates
Fukushima plant photograph - Updated hourly
Nuclear Fuel Pools
Hirose Takashi Interview
Decontamination Threshold
Marvin Resnikoff Article
Dr. Michael Allen Article
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Detailed info on spent fuel pools at Fukushima.
Over 10,000 assemblies weighing approx 170kg each are stored in the spent fuel pools. This means that a total of over 1,700,000 kg of nuclear fuel rods are stored in seven pools at Fukushima.
Over 1,800 assemblies in units #3 and #4 weigh a total of over 300,000 kg and are at immediate and high risk.
See for yourself. http://allthingsnuclear.org/post/4008511524/more-on-spent-fuel-pools-at-fukushima#comment-172359487
AaronC
Over 1,800 assemblies in units #3 and #4 weigh a total of over 300,000 kg and are at immediate and high risk.
See for yourself. http://allthingsnuclear.org/post/4008511524/more-on-spent-fuel-pools-at-fukushima#comment-172359487
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Fukushima cooling efforts making problem worse, not better.
Japan, the nuclear industry and the media continue their effort to minimize this disaster. A review of the evidence shows that current efforts to cool the plant are both ineffective and counter-productive.
Every day that is spent pouring water on radioactive lava is another day wasted. All the salt accumulation in the reactors will have locked every valve, making reactivation of the circulation pumps impossible even if they have power and fresh water.
The water presently reaching the melting fuel is first super contaminated after which is it released into the air via steam, or into the local ground water and the adjacent ocean. Most will end up in the ocean. These radioactive elements will concentrate into the food chain. The inverse square law really means that ingestion of radioactive elements magnifies their effect immensely.
Every day, radiation climbs at the plant. Every day is one day less we have to work before the problem escalates even further. Every day, we are lied to about the magnitude of the problem puts the Japanese people and the entire world at greater risk.
A massive effort to isolate, cool, and then entomb the entire site should have started a week or more ago.
You cannot just pour concrete over the reactors and ponds. First you have cool the fuel and immerse it in a moderator so that the melting stops. To first cool the fuel you must do more than pour water over top of it. You must submerge it in circulating, cooled water, or in an amount of water large enough to naturally disperse the heat.
If you turned the each unit or the entire site into a huge swimming pool further meltdown could be halted. Moderators could be injected. Concrete could then be poured on until the plant is entombed.
This is simplistic and filled with complications, but some sort of drastic effort along these lines should have begun on day one. It may already be too late, but work with huge bulldozers, shovels, and dump trucks should be possible even as radiation levels rise. On equipment that large radiation shielding could be built around the driver. Giant dikes could be built and all the fuel could be immersed in a body of water large enough to keep it cool. Further steps could then be taken.
This immense problem requires an immediate and immense response.
AaronC
Every day that is spent pouring water on radioactive lava is another day wasted. All the salt accumulation in the reactors will have locked every valve, making reactivation of the circulation pumps impossible even if they have power and fresh water.
The water presently reaching the melting fuel is first super contaminated after which is it released into the air via steam, or into the local ground water and the adjacent ocean. Most will end up in the ocean. These radioactive elements will concentrate into the food chain. The inverse square law really means that ingestion of radioactive elements magnifies their effect immensely.
Every day, radiation climbs at the plant. Every day is one day less we have to work before the problem escalates even further. Every day, we are lied to about the magnitude of the problem puts the Japanese people and the entire world at greater risk.
A massive effort to isolate, cool, and then entomb the entire site should have started a week or more ago.
You cannot just pour concrete over the reactors and ponds. First you have cool the fuel and immerse it in a moderator so that the melting stops. To first cool the fuel you must do more than pour water over top of it. You must submerge it in circulating, cooled water, or in an amount of water large enough to naturally disperse the heat.
If you turned the each unit or the entire site into a huge swimming pool further meltdown could be halted. Moderators could be injected. Concrete could then be poured on until the plant is entombed.
This is simplistic and filled with complications, but some sort of drastic effort along these lines should have begun on day one. It may already be too late, but work with huge bulldozers, shovels, and dump trucks should be possible even as radiation levels rise. On equipment that large radiation shielding could be built around the driver. Giant dikes could be built and all the fuel could be immersed in a body of water large enough to keep it cool. Further steps could then be taken.
This immense problem requires an immediate and immense response.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Scientist sums up argument for immediate entombment.
I found this at: http://www.counterpunch.org/takashi03222011.html
Hirose Takashi: The Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident and the State of the Media
Broadcast by Asahi NewStar, 17 March, 20:00
Interviewers: Yoh Sen'ei and Maeda Mari
Yoh: Today many people saw water being sprayed on the reactors from the air and from the ground, but is this effective?
Hirose: . . . If you want to cool a reactor down with water, you have to circulate the water inside and carry the heat away, otherwise it has no meaning. So the only solution is to reconnect the electricity. Otherwise it’s like pouring water on lava.
Yoh: Reconnect the electricity – that’s to restart the cooling system?
Hirose: Yes. The accident was caused by the fact that the tsunami flooded the emergency generators and carried away their fuel tanks. If that isn’t fixed, there’s no way to recover from this accident.
Yoh: Tepco [Tokyo Electric Power Company, owner/operator of the nuclear plants] says they expect to bring in a high voltage line this evening.
Hirose: Yes, there’s a little bit of hope there. But what’s worrisome is that a nuclear reactor is not like what the schematic pictures show (shows a graphic picture of a reactor, like those used on TV). This is just a cartoon. Here’s what it looks like underneath a reactor container (shows a photograph). This is the butt end of the reactor. Take a look. It’s a forest of switch levers and wires and pipes. On television these pseudo-scholars come on and give us simple explanations, but they know nothing, those college professors. Only the engineers know. This is where water has been poured in. This maze of pipes is enough to make you dizzy. Its structure is too wildly complex for us to understand. For a week now they have been pouring water through there. And it’s salt water, right? You pour salt water on a hot kiln and what do you think happens? You get salt. The salt will get into all these valves and cause them to freeze. They won’t move. This will be happening everywhere. So I can’t believe that it’s just a simple matter of you reconnecting the electricity and the water will begin to circulate. I think any engineer with a little imagination can understand this. You take a system as unbelievably complex as this and then actually dump water on it from a helicopter – maybe they have some idea of how this could work, but I can’t understand it.
Yoh: It will take 1300 tons of water to fill the pools that contain the spent fuel rods in reactors 3 and 4. This morning 30 tons. Then the Self Defense Forces are to hose in another 30 tons from five trucks. That’s nowhere near enough, they have to keep it up. Is this squirting of water from hoses going to change the situation?
Hirose: In principle, it can’t. Because even when a reactor is in good shape, it requires constant control to keep the temperature down to where it is barely safe. Now it’s a complete mess inside, and when I think of the 50 remaining operators, it brings tears to my eyes. I assume they have been exposed to very large amounts of radiation, and that they have accepted that they face death by staying there. And how long can they last? I mean, physically. That’s what the situation has come to now. When I see these accounts on television, I want to tell them, “If that’s what you say, then go there and do it yourself!” Really, they talk this nonsense, trying to reassure everyone, trying to avoid panic. What we need now is a proper panic. Because the situation has come to the point where the danger is real.
If I were Prime Minister Kan, I would order them to do what the Soviet Union did when the Chernobyl reactor blew up, the sarcophagus solution, bury the whole thing under cement, put every cement company in Japan to work, and dump cement over it from the sky. Because you have to assume the worst case. Why? Because in Fukushima there is the Daiichi Plant with six reactors and the Daini Plant with four for a total of ten reactors. If even one of them develops the worst case, then the workers there must either evacuate the site or stay on and collapse. So if, for example, one of the reactors at Daiichi goes down, the other five are only a matter of time. We can’t know in what order they will go, but certainly all of them will go. And if that happens, Daini isn’t so far away, so probably the reactors there will also go down. Because I assume that workers will not be able to stay there.
I’m speaking of the worst case, but the probability is not low. This is the danger that the world is watching. Only in Japan is it being hidden. As you know, of the six reactors at Daiichi, four are in a crisis state. So even if at one everything goes well and water circulation is restored, the other three could still go down. Four are in crisis, and for all four to be 100 per cent repaired, I hate to say it, but I am pessimistic. If so, then to save the people, we have to think about some way to reduce the radiation leakage to the lowest level possible. Not by spraying water from hoses, like sprinkling water on a desert. We have to think of all six going down, and the possibility of that happening is not low. Everyone knows how long it takes a typhoon to pass over Japan; it generally takes about a week. That is, with a wind speed of two meters per second, it could take about five days for all of Japan to be covered with radiation. We’re not talking about distances of 20 kilometers or 30 kilometers or 100 kilometers. It means of course Tokyo, Osaka. That’s how fast a radioactive cloud could spread. Of course it would depend on the weather; we can’t know in advance how the radiation would be distributed. It would be nice if the wind would blow toward the sea, but it doesn’t always do that. Two days ago, on the 15th, it was blowing toward Tokyo. That’s how it is. . . .
Yoh: Every day the local government is measuring the radioactivity. All the television stations are saying that while radiation is rising, it is still not high enough to be a danger to health. They compare it to a stomach x-ray, or if it goes up, to a CT scan. What is the truth of the matter?
Hirose: For example, yesterday. Around Fukushima Daiichi Station they measured 400 millisieverts – that’s per hour. With this measurement (Chief Cabinet Secretary) Edano admitted for the first time that there was a danger to health, but he didn’t explain what this means. All of the information media are at fault here I think. They are saying stupid things like, why, we are exposed to radiation all the time in our daily life, we get radiation from outer space. But that’s one millisievert per year. A year has 365 days, a day has 24 hours; multiply 365 by 24, you get 8760. Multiply the 400 millisieverts by that, you get 3,500,000 the normal dose. You call that safe? And what media have reported this? None. They compare it to a CT scan, which is over in an instant; that has nothing to do with it. The reason radioactivity can be measured is that radioactive material is escaping. What is dangerous is when that material enters your body and irradiates it from inside. These industry-mouthpiece scholars come on TV and what to they say? They say as you move away the radiation is reduced in inverse ratio to the square of the distance. I want to say the reverse. Internal irradiation happens when radioactive material is ingested into the body. What happens? Say there is a nuclear particle one meter away from you. You breathe it in, it sticks inside your body; the distance between you and it is now at the micron level. One meter is 1000 millimeters, one micron is one thousandth of a millimeter. That’s a thousand times a thousand: a thousand squared. That’s the real meaning of “inverse ratio of the square of the distance.” Radiation exposure is increased by a factor of a trillion. Inhaling even the tiniest particle, that’s the danger.
Yoh: So making comparisons with X-rays and CT scans has no meaning. Because you can breathe in radioactive material.
Hirose: That’s right. When it enters your body, there’s no telling where it will go. The biggest danger is women, especially pregnant women, and little children. Now they’re talking about iodine and cesium, but that’s only part of it, they’re not using the proper detection instruments. What they call monitoring means only measuring the amount of radiation in the air. Their instruments don’t eat. What they measure has no connection with the amount of radioactive material. . . .
Yoh: So damage from radioactive rays and damage from radioactive material are not the same.
Hirose: If you ask, are any radioactive rays from the Fukushima Nuclear Station here in this studio, the answer will be no. But radioactive particles are carried here by the air. When the core begins to melt down, elements inside like iodine turn to gas. It rises to the top, so if there is any crevice it escapes outside.
Yoh: Is there any way to detect this?
Hirose: I was told by a newspaper reporter that now Tepco is not in shape even to do regular monitoring. They just take an occasional measurement, and that becomes the basis of Edano’s statements. You have to take constant measurements, but they are not able to do that. And you need to investigate just what is escaping, and how much. That requires very sophisticated measuring instruments. You can’t do it just by keeping a monitoring post. It’s no good just to measure the level of radiation in the air. Whiz in by car, take a measurement, it’s high, it’s low – that’s not the point. We need to know what kind of radioactive materials are escaping, and where they are going – they don’t have a system in place for doing that now.
Decontamination Threshold Raised From 6000cpm to 100000cpm
NISA announces that decontamination threshold has been raised: http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110325-5-1.pdf
NISA releases radioactive contamination results of water from Unit #1
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110325-6.pdf
Friday 25 March 2011
JAIF: "working condition in high radiation area is so bad and there is no prospect of accomplishing the work for this recovery"
Latest JAIF report: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1301116660P.pdf
Evidence says Japan nuclear meltdown will surpass Chernobyl.
The science is simple. Nuclear fuel rods will heat up, melt, and then burn if they are not cooled.
Examination of the heat, pressure and radiation data from Fukushima tells us the worst. Efforts to cool the nuclear fuel with sea water have compounded the already difficult problem of cooling the tonnes of nuclear fuel in the shattered plant. The salt buildup created virtually guarantees that large areas of the fuel are now unreachable by circulating water. A little progress has been made in cooling some areas, but fuel in many areas is receiving little or no cooling.
Fuel rods are melting at a number of locations at the plant. Many of these rods are receiving no cooling. They do not appear to be burning much yet, but they will be soon. Once rods start burning, radiation release at the site will become so lethal that all further effort to cool the fuel will stop. More fuel will burn, radiation levels will rise, and so on in a vicious loop.
The Japanese Government has still not admitted to the seriousness of the problem. I feel that the problem is so large that they can see no rational solution. The Entire country of Japan is in dire peril. To a lesser extent, the entire world.
A significant percentage the nuclear fuel on-site is at risk of melting and burning. This includes the common spent fuel pond and perhaps worst, the tonnes of plutonium in Unit #3. Once the plutonium starts burning it will leave a trail of uninhabitable death in whichever direction the wind blows and the water flows.
If you can leave Japan, I would recommend doing so now before it becomes impossible.
I dislike alarmists, and know I must sound like one, but the evidence is clear. I have no agenda. I have just looked at the data and science that is available to us all. I have provided most of the important links earlier in my blog, but it is not that hard to find the data any longer. The radioactive elements being released prove fuel is melting. The data shows that a number of locations at the plant have fuel that is continuing to heat. Burning is inevitable.
When the fuel seriously starts to burn, black smoke will start to rise in earnest. This smoke will be roughly equivalent to that released at Chernobyl (without graphite), but will continue and grow in quantity and radioactivity as more fuel burns. This event will not blow itself apart and become less dangerous as at Chernobyl. It will continue and grow. When the fuel in Unit #3 starts burning it will mark just the beginning of the single most catastrophic event humankind has brought on itself so far. The idea of the common spent fuel pond burning is so terrible I cannot comment sensibly on it.
Melting fuel can accumulate into a critical mass.
It is probable that we will see a lot more black smoke soon. Probably in the next 48hrs. At some point after that, we will probably see more explosions, some hydrogen, and probably some nuclear. One or more small criticalites are again horrible to contemplate, but are possible if not probable. If and when they happen, especially in Unit #3, a massive release of radioactive materials, dust, and particles will occur.
Once again, I hope the brave workers perform a miracle and save the plant. Unfortunately the data and science say that this is doubtful.
Once again, If you can leave Japan, I would recommend doing so now before it becomes impossible.
AaronC
Examination of the heat, pressure and radiation data from Fukushima tells us the worst. Efforts to cool the nuclear fuel with sea water have compounded the already difficult problem of cooling the tonnes of nuclear fuel in the shattered plant. The salt buildup created virtually guarantees that large areas of the fuel are now unreachable by circulating water. A little progress has been made in cooling some areas, but fuel in many areas is receiving little or no cooling.
Fuel rods are melting at a number of locations at the plant. Many of these rods are receiving no cooling. They do not appear to be burning much yet, but they will be soon. Once rods start burning, radiation release at the site will become so lethal that all further effort to cool the fuel will stop. More fuel will burn, radiation levels will rise, and so on in a vicious loop.
The Japanese Government has still not admitted to the seriousness of the problem. I feel that the problem is so large that they can see no rational solution. The Entire country of Japan is in dire peril. To a lesser extent, the entire world.
A significant percentage the nuclear fuel on-site is at risk of melting and burning. This includes the common spent fuel pond and perhaps worst, the tonnes of plutonium in Unit #3. Once the plutonium starts burning it will leave a trail of uninhabitable death in whichever direction the wind blows and the water flows.
If you can leave Japan, I would recommend doing so now before it becomes impossible.
I dislike alarmists, and know I must sound like one, but the evidence is clear. I have no agenda. I have just looked at the data and science that is available to us all. I have provided most of the important links earlier in my blog, but it is not that hard to find the data any longer. The radioactive elements being released prove fuel is melting. The data shows that a number of locations at the plant have fuel that is continuing to heat. Burning is inevitable.
When the fuel seriously starts to burn, black smoke will start to rise in earnest. This smoke will be roughly equivalent to that released at Chernobyl (without graphite), but will continue and grow in quantity and radioactivity as more fuel burns. This event will not blow itself apart and become less dangerous as at Chernobyl. It will continue and grow. When the fuel in Unit #3 starts burning it will mark just the beginning of the single most catastrophic event humankind has brought on itself so far. The idea of the common spent fuel pond burning is so terrible I cannot comment sensibly on it.
Melting fuel can accumulate into a critical mass.
It is probable that we will see a lot more black smoke soon. Probably in the next 48hrs. At some point after that, we will probably see more explosions, some hydrogen, and probably some nuclear. One or more small criticalites are again horrible to contemplate, but are possible if not probable. If and when they happen, especially in Unit #3, a massive release of radioactive materials, dust, and particles will occur.
Once again, I hope the brave workers perform a miracle and save the plant. Unfortunately the data and science say that this is doubtful.
Once again, If you can leave Japan, I would recommend doing so now before it becomes impossible.
AaronC
Monday 21 March 2011
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Evidence Clear-Meltdowns Continue-Government Minimizes
It is no longer hard to find the evidence. The links that I found over the last few days and newer information such as the radioactive composition of releases from Fukushima, radiation maps of japan, food contamination, etc seem conclusive enough to me. The battle to stop the meltdowns was lost days ago. TEPCO and the Japanese Government continue to minimize and paint the most optimistic face on everything.
The situation at Fukushima is beyond critical. Firetrucks and water bombing have little chance of cooling shattered pools, and no chance of cooling melting cores. Radiation levels on-site are rising above lethal levels. Unit #3 will soon make the entire plant uninhabitable when its core starts spewing plutonium.
Japan must immediately get its head out of the sand. The sky IS falling. Everything up to and including the meltdown of #1 through #6 AND the massive exterior used fuel storage pool is possible, if not probable. Criticalities (small nuclear explosions) are a real possibility especially in unit #3.
Japan and the world is now faced with coming up with a way to cool an entire 6 reactor facility which will be too radioactive for humans to work on without massive protection.
The first part of this solution is to stop pretending the problem can be fixed at all, at least in the short term.
The evacuation area must be expanded immediately. Japan must enlist the help of the world to plan and execute the largest cooling and containment effort in our history.
AaronC
The situation at Fukushima is beyond critical. Firetrucks and water bombing have little chance of cooling shattered pools, and no chance of cooling melting cores. Radiation levels on-site are rising above lethal levels. Unit #3 will soon make the entire plant uninhabitable when its core starts spewing plutonium.
Japan must immediately get its head out of the sand. The sky IS falling. Everything up to and including the meltdown of #1 through #6 AND the massive exterior used fuel storage pool is possible, if not probable. Criticalities (small nuclear explosions) are a real possibility especially in unit #3.
Japan and the world is now faced with coming up with a way to cool an entire 6 reactor facility which will be too radioactive for humans to work on without massive protection.
The first part of this solution is to stop pretending the problem can be fixed at all, at least in the short term.
The evacuation area must be expanded immediately. Japan must enlist the help of the world to plan and execute the largest cooling and containment effort in our history.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Radiation spikes for third time.
Reading of environmental radioactivity level by prefecture, Time series data（Graph）（English version)
Take note of Fukushima and Ibaraki Prefectures. We see larger spikes corresponding to explosions at unit #1 and unit #3, and a new, smaller spike corresponding with gray smoke and evacuation from #3 (maybe 2).
This data also shows that many areas now receive more than a normal years worth of radiation every 24hrs.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Plant #3 Evacuated and spewing grey smoke.
This morning I woke to small blurbs on CNN about Unit#3 and being evacuated and emitting gray smoke, and as I type, they say that Unit#2 is also emitting gray smoke.
Unfortunately, my concern that one or more units is going to go into complete meltdown causing repair work to stop on the entire plant might be being realised.
Starting effort to dig up the details now.
AaronC
Unfortunately, my concern that one or more units is going to go into complete meltdown causing repair work to stop on the entire plant might be being realised.
Starting effort to dig up the details now.
AaronC
Saturday 19 March 2011
Life intrudes again ...
Time for bed and work tomorrow.
Much as I want to continue research, I must pay the rent.
Sleep, and then work. Back in about 36 hours.
Hoping that the situation improves ...
AaronC
Much as I want to continue research, I must pay the rent.
Sleep, and then work. Back in about 36 hours.
Hoping that the situation improves ...
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-NISA Report-30 Evacuees register over 13,000 CPM
Latest NISA reports: http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110320-1.pdf
My quick count shows approx 30 evacuated locals show high levels of radiation.
AaronC
My quick count shows approx 30 evacuated locals show high levels of radiation.
AaronC
Update
I was able to get more info on my earlier posting about the recent annoucement on NHK.
NHK announcement was about unit #3, and was by Naoto Sekeimur.
AaronC
NHK announcement was about unit #3, and was by Naoto Sekeimur.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Massive solution required for massive problem.
Again, I call for answers from the world. New thinking is required immediately to solve unprecedented problem.
I will take a stab at containment.
Again, with huge mining equipment. Can we build a berm around the entire site and then pump in water? Submerging everything in a large volume of water would seem to be one possible solution.
AaronC
I will take a stab at containment.
Again, with huge mining equipment. Can we build a berm around the entire site and then pump in water? Submerging everything in a large volume of water would seem to be one possible solution.
AaronC
Some announcements on NHK World english indicate some improvement in situation.
It was just announced on NHK TV English (online) that an unmanned unit had sprayed a more considerable amount of water on unit #3.
Also, hoping to start spraying soon on unit #4 with 80 tonnes of water.
Unit #5 has a coolant pump working. Temperature has dropped to 43.1C.
Unit #6 has a coolant pump working. Temperature has dropped to 52C.
Effort still seems unequal to the task, but work to avert further disaster seems to be becoming more effective.
I hope that this continues to be the case, and I hope that this crisis can be kept from deteriorating further.
In spite of most recently reported positive developments, I am still highly concerned that the situation will continue to deteriorate quickly.
Again, I hope that I am completely incorrect.
My thoughts continue to be with the brave workers giving everything, trying to save us from ourselves....
AaronC
Also, hoping to start spraying soon on unit #4 with 80 tonnes of water.
Unit #5 has a coolant pump working. Temperature has dropped to 43.1C.
Unit #6 has a coolant pump working. Temperature has dropped to 52C.
Effort still seems unequal to the task, but work to avert further disaster seems to be becoming more effective.
I hope that this continues to be the case, and I hope that this crisis can be kept from deteriorating further.
In spite of most recently reported positive developments, I am still highly concerned that the situation will continue to deteriorate quickly.
Again, I hope that I am completely incorrect.
My thoughts continue to be with the brave workers giving everything, trying to save us from ourselves....
AaronC
Scientist on NHK World TV English makes assesment.
I am quoting this from quick notes, and cannot ensure complete accuracy. I also did not catch the scientists name.
A Japanese scientist on NHK said the following:
-due to the explosion we see that the building is largely destroyed
-upper and lower parts of building suffer different types of damage (my possible interpretation: two explosions of different types?)
-spent fuel pool wall has been destroyed
-crane must be inspected as it may have destroyed pipes
I am almost sure that he was referring to unit #3.
Basically, my take on his explanation continues to support my belief that the situation has already spiraled beyond repair.
Containment and evacuation efforts need to commence immediately.
AaronC
A Japanese scientist on NHK said the following:
-due to the explosion we see that the building is largely destroyed
-upper and lower parts of building suffer different types of damage (my possible interpretation: two explosions of different types?)
-spent fuel pool wall has been destroyed
-crane must be inspected as it may have destroyed pipes
I am almost sure that he was referring to unit #3.
Basically, my take on his explanation continues to support my belief that the situation has already spiraled beyond repair.
Containment and evacuation efforts need to commence immediately.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-TEPCO not providing data.
TEPCO report 00:00 Mar 19: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031905-e.html
- We measured radioactive materials (iodine etc.) inside of the nuclear power station area (outdoor) by monitoring car and confirmed that radioactive materials level is getting higher than ordinary level. As listed below, we have determined that specific incidents stipulated in article 15, clause 1 of Act on Special Measures Concerning Nuclear Emergency Preparedness (Abnormal increase in radiation dose measured at site boundary) have occurred. ·Determined at 4:17 PM Mar 12th (Around Monitoring Post 4 ) ·Determined at 8:56 AM Mar 13th (Around Monitoring Post 4 ) ·Determined at 2:15 PM Mar 13th (Around Monitoring Post 4 ) ·Determined at 3:50 AM Mar 14th (Around Monitoring Post 6 ) ·Determined at 4:15 AM Mar 14th (Around Monitoring Post 2 ) ·Determined at 9:27 AM Mar 14th (Around Monitoring Post 3 ) ·Determined at 9:37 PM Mar 14th (Around main entrance ) ·Determined at 6:51 AM Mar 15th (Around main entrance ) ·Determined at 8:11 AM Mar 15th (Around main entrance ) ·Determined at 4:17 PM Mar 15th (Around main entrance ) ·Determined at 11:05 PM Mar 15th (Around main entrance ) ·Determined at 8:58 AM Mar 19th (Around MP5) From now on, if the measured figure fluctuates and goes above and below 500 micro Sv/h, we deem that as the continuous same event and will not regard that as a new specific incidents stipulated in article 15, clause 1 of the Act on Special Measures Concerning Nuclear Emergency Preparedness (Abnormal increase in radiation dose measured at site boundary) has occurred. In the interim, if we measure a manifestly abnormal figure and it is evident that the event is not the continuous same event, we will determine and notify.
So, if the radioactivity measurement goes above or below 500 micro Sv/h they
deem there is no need to report it as it is part of a continuous event.
All of the "specific incidents" reported are from the 15th with one exception.
That exception, today, on the 19th took place at unit 5. In other words, the
radiation level at unit 5 is rising either due to drift from 1 to 4 or, as a
pool is melting already in unit 5. In either case, we are moving closer to
being unable to take any corrective action at units 5 and 6 and are not being
given measurements taken for days unless a new area has climbed into legal alert
levels.
It has been deemed unnecessary to report what the measured value of each
incident report, or to report ongoing levels. There is an active effort to
release the bare minimum legally required by international agreement while
avoiding the truth.
We have been told that the radiation is steadily rising, but there is no
public release as to the details of the radiation rise on site.
It appears to me that the data is again incomplete and slanted.
Fukushima is in much greater danger than is being reported and the world
needs full disclosure now!
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-JAIF Data does not add up.
I have, so far been able to get the most data from the JAIF reports. They are available at: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/index.php
In spite of media reports indicating that the temp of these tanks is now going down, the data says something a bit different, and is not adding up.
In regards to pool temperature at Units #5 and 6, the last five reports show this:
Mar 18
13:00 - Unit 5: 65.9C Unit 6: 63C
16:00 - Unit 5: 62C Unit 6: 62C
Mar 19
07:00 - Unit 5: 67.6C Unit 6: 65C
11:00 - Unit 5: 67.6C Unit 6: 65C
17:00 - Unit 5: 67.6C Unit 6: 65C
The same reports state in succession and in every report but the last that the temperature of both ponds is rising. In the last, it they report that pool temp in #5 is "high but decreasing". #6 is still reported as temperature rising. Where are these readings coming from? Why do different parts of each report contradict each other? Why is there a measurement for one pool at 5 and on at 6. Are there not two pools at each of these facilities as well?
JAIF reporting of reactor pressures, water levels, and core exposure in 1, 2, and 3 are similarly suspect.
Data has just been repeated for days, and/or different parts of the report are in disagreement. This is the best data that I have been able to locate, but with successive releases, it is becoming apparent that the data is not entirely accurate.
It appears to me that at best, they are using last known data which in some cases may be days old. In spite of claims of success, they have no idea, or are unwilling to release, the actual conditions - even inside 5 and 6, which according to their reports are largely undamaged except for the holes they have punched in the roof of each to try to vent hydrogen.
Drastic action is required immediately but under-reporting of events by the Japanese government, it's agencies, the media, and TEPCO continues to downplay the scale of this disaster and ignore and/or distort the facts. Immediate full disclosure is required so the world can make its best effort to mitigate this catastrophe.
AaronC
In spite of media reports indicating that the temp of these tanks is now going down, the data says something a bit different, and is not adding up.
In regards to pool temperature at Units #5 and 6, the last five reports show this:
Mar 18
13:00 - Unit 5: 65.9C Unit 6: 63C
16:00 - Unit 5: 62C Unit 6: 62C
Mar 19
07:00 - Unit 5: 67.6C Unit 6: 65C
11:00 - Unit 5: 67.6C Unit 6: 65C
17:00 - Unit 5: 67.6C Unit 6: 65C
The same reports state in succession and in every report but the last that the temperature of both ponds is rising. In the last, it they report that pool temp in #5 is "high but decreasing". #6 is still reported as temperature rising. Where are these readings coming from? Why do different parts of each report contradict each other? Why is there a measurement for one pool at 5 and on at 6. Are there not two pools at each of these facilities as well?
JAIF reporting of reactor pressures, water levels, and core exposure in 1, 2, and 3 are similarly suspect.
Data has just been repeated for days, and/or different parts of the report are in disagreement. This is the best data that I have been able to locate, but with successive releases, it is becoming apparent that the data is not entirely accurate.
It appears to me that at best, they are using last known data which in some cases may be days old. In spite of claims of success, they have no idea, or are unwilling to release, the actual conditions - even inside 5 and 6, which according to their reports are largely undamaged except for the holes they have punched in the roof of each to try to vent hydrogen.
Drastic action is required immediately but under-reporting of events by the Japanese government, it's agencies, the media, and TEPCO continues to downplay the scale of this disaster and ignore and/or distort the facts. Immediate full disclosure is required so the world can make its best effort to mitigate this catastrophe.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Who has ideas to combat disaster?
An effective response must be mounted at Fukushima. Can the world come up with some solutions?
I will throw out my first idea.
What about setting up huge mining equipment. Could gigantic bulldozers, dump trucks and shovels be set up with lead armored cabs to bury the reactors?
AaronC
I will throw out my first idea.
What about setting up huge mining equipment. Could gigantic bulldozers, dump trucks and shovels be set up with lead armored cabs to bury the reactors?
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-JAIF data shows situation melting down.
The reports from JAIF concern me most when you look at the details.
They show that Unit's #5 and 6 are of such concern that they punched a hole in the roof of one or both to help evacuate hydrogen build up. Hydrogen buildup implies that a chemical reaction has been occurring between the casing and water for some time due to overheating. It appears to me that they are well on their way to causing explosions similar to what we have seen in other units with associated radiation increase and meltdown of pond contents. JAIF has indicated some resumption of electricity and pumping at 5 and 6, but no report of any success in lowering the pond temperature. #5 and #6 might be melting now, or will be as situation escalates.
Unit #4 is receiving no attention. High radioactivity, a largely intact roof, and damage to the pool structures seem to have precluded any sensible response at #4. #4 continues to melt.
Unit #3 has had a little water sprayed on it with unknown effect. At last known report, days ago #3 had failed containment and partial meltdown. Spraying water might help slow the melting of the pond, but not be able to penetrate to cool core at all.
The data shows core exposure at #1, 2, and 3 but water and pressure levels remaining fairly steady. This makes no sense. If the cores were half exposed days ago, how is it that the water level is remaining steady? There are no reports of any ability to supply water to the cores of 1, 2, or 3. Units 1, 2, and 3 are melting.
It is my belief that the situation continues to spiral completely out of control. To varying degrees, all six units are, or are in danger of, melting down. Radiation release will continue to rise steadily. There is no effective response to the situation.
AaronC
They show that Unit's #5 and 6 are of such concern that they punched a hole in the roof of one or both to help evacuate hydrogen build up. Hydrogen buildup implies that a chemical reaction has been occurring between the casing and water for some time due to overheating. It appears to me that they are well on their way to causing explosions similar to what we have seen in other units with associated radiation increase and meltdown of pond contents. JAIF has indicated some resumption of electricity and pumping at 5 and 6, but no report of any success in lowering the pond temperature. #5 and #6 might be melting now, or will be as situation escalates.
Unit #4 is receiving no attention. High radioactivity, a largely intact roof, and damage to the pool structures seem to have precluded any sensible response at #4. #4 continues to melt.
Unit #3 has had a little water sprayed on it with unknown effect. At last known report, days ago #3 had failed containment and partial meltdown. Spraying water might help slow the melting of the pond, but not be able to penetrate to cool core at all.
The data shows core exposure at #1, 2, and 3 but water and pressure levels remaining fairly steady. This makes no sense. If the cores were half exposed days ago, how is it that the water level is remaining steady? There are no reports of any ability to supply water to the cores of 1, 2, or 3. Units 1, 2, and 3 are melting.
It is my belief that the situation continues to spiral completely out of control. To varying degrees, all six units are, or are in danger of, melting down. Radiation release will continue to rise steadily. There is no effective response to the situation.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis-Best technical details still at JAIF: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/index.php
The last 36hrs have seen more of the information being given out by the Japanese Government and TEPCOE, but I believe that the situation is still much worse than the public is being told.
I will do a more detailed analysis soon, but the basic situation is still the same. Unit #3 is still in the process of melting down both it's core full of MOX, and it's storage pond. Unit #4 has a 2 packed fuel ponds melting down. Units #1 and 2 have serious current problems. Units #5 and 6 will also melt their ponds if water cannot be maintained.
They seem to have made a few feeble attempts to spray water on Unit #3 with helicopters and water cannon, but the amounts of water are insignificant and their ability to get the water where they need it is insufficient.
Radiation levels are rising at and around the plant. Buried in the data already are reports of workers being taken to hospital due to massive radiation exposure. How long work can continue at all is now the question.
Any containment effort at this point is at least on a scale of months. As the multiple meltdowns proceed and cause further damage radiation will be spewing from the plant. Radioactive dust will be spread in EVERY direction by the wind over coming days, weeks, months, hopefully not years...
The only good news is no graphite dust as seen at Chernobyl. This will help limit how far the radioactive cloud travels, but any explosion creates dust which can carry the radioactivity. The spread of radioactive dust is assured.
I have not located any solution to this problem as of yet, and unfortunately, neither has the Japanese Government or TEPCO. To start, though, I believe an 80-100km evacuation is in order. Tokyo is approximately 238km away and hopefully not in great danger, but it is easy to see scenarios which require evacuation of this metropolis as well.
My thoughts are still with the workers giving their lives on site in what looks like a so far useless effort to stave off the unthinkable.
AaronC
I will do a more detailed analysis soon, but the basic situation is still the same. Unit #3 is still in the process of melting down both it's core full of MOX, and it's storage pond. Unit #4 has a 2 packed fuel ponds melting down. Units #1 and 2 have serious current problems. Units #5 and 6 will also melt their ponds if water cannot be maintained.
They seem to have made a few feeble attempts to spray water on Unit #3 with helicopters and water cannon, but the amounts of water are insignificant and their ability to get the water where they need it is insufficient.
Radiation levels are rising at and around the plant. Buried in the data already are reports of workers being taken to hospital due to massive radiation exposure. How long work can continue at all is now the question.
Any containment effort at this point is at least on a scale of months. As the multiple meltdowns proceed and cause further damage radiation will be spewing from the plant. Radioactive dust will be spread in EVERY direction by the wind over coming days, weeks, months, hopefully not years...
The only good news is no graphite dust as seen at Chernobyl. This will help limit how far the radioactive cloud travels, but any explosion creates dust which can carry the radioactivity. The spread of radioactive dust is assured.
I have not located any solution to this problem as of yet, and unfortunately, neither has the Japanese Government or TEPCO. To start, though, I believe an 80-100km evacuation is in order. Tokyo is approximately 238km away and hopefully not in great danger, but it is easy to see scenarios which require evacuation of this metropolis as well.
My thoughts are still with the workers giving their lives on site in what looks like a so far useless effort to stave off the unthinkable.
AaronC
Thursday 17 March 2011
The glint in the pool will not save Fukushima - Japan Nuclear Crisis
I just saw video on CNN that they said was the basis for TEPCO's belief there was water covering the cooling rods. I did not see the glint that was pointed out, but that is not the reason for my complete disbelief that all the rods are covered by water in Unit #4.
If you look at the Mark 1's design:
and read: Used Nuclear Fuel Storage at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant & bellona.org - Spent Fuel Cooling Ponds you can see that at very least, the pond pictured top, right in the nuclear diagram is full of re-racked hot fuel. It is possible that the pond on the left is also a storage pond, but have not been able to confirm this. From the description of re-racking and also maximum usage I suspect that is is the case.
Regardless, there was an explosion that appeared to originate directly over this pool. Whichever pool the explosion originated from, it occurred due to hydrogen production from overheated, exposed rods. If any rods were this hot, then is it possible that days after the explosion (which in, and of itself, would have largely emptied any pools and probably cracked the walls causing drainage) there would still be water covering the fuel? Filling it near to the top of the pool where it caused a "glint" seen from a helicopter? I do not believe it is.
I believe the pool(s) at plant 4 are almost certainly dry or close to it.
I believe there is no hope to cool these ponds.
As I type, I hear on CNN that the rising radiation levels reported for today support this.
Reports of workers falling and rising radiation levels indicate that human effort at the plant is all but over. Three cracked reactor vessels and four ponds full of corium (pondium?) will continue to melt. Unit's #5 and 6 may also become totally unserviceable by humans. If so, they will melt their huge ponds as well. Unit #3 is belching a super version of radiation with it's MOX fuel.
In my opinion, the battle is over. We are in the the first days of an almost unimaginable event. Fukushima is about to become an multiple meltdown event that will dwarf every nuclear disaster in our history.
I believe that TEPCO and the Japanese government will go down in history as having covered up and downplayed this event for too long. When this plant really starts to belch out radiation any time now, and the wind blows south, west, or north, the impact on people and land will be more than profound. The fact that nobody was warned will be remembered forever.
I close with the sincere hope that I am wrong.
AaronC
If you look at the Mark 1's design:
Regardless, there was an explosion that appeared to originate directly over this pool. Whichever pool the explosion originated from, it occurred due to hydrogen production from overheated, exposed rods. If any rods were this hot, then is it possible that days after the explosion (which in, and of itself, would have largely emptied any pools and probably cracked the walls causing drainage) there would still be water covering the fuel? Filling it near to the top of the pool where it caused a "glint" seen from a helicopter? I do not believe it is.
I believe the pool(s) at plant 4 are almost certainly dry or close to it.
I believe there is no hope to cool these ponds.
As I type, I hear on CNN that the rising radiation levels reported for today support this.
Reports of workers falling and rising radiation levels indicate that human effort at the plant is all but over. Three cracked reactor vessels and four ponds full of corium (pondium?) will continue to melt. Unit's #5 and 6 may also become totally unserviceable by humans. If so, they will melt their huge ponds as well. Unit #3 is belching a super version of radiation with it's MOX fuel.
In my opinion, the battle is over. We are in the the first days of an almost unimaginable event. Fukushima is about to become an multiple meltdown event that will dwarf every nuclear disaster in our history.
I believe that TEPCO and the Japanese government will go down in history as having covered up and downplayed this event for too long. When this plant really starts to belch out radiation any time now, and the wind blows south, west, or north, the impact on people and land will be more than profound. The fact that nobody was warned will be remembered forever.
I close with the sincere hope that I am wrong.
AaronC
Life intrudes ...
My every fibre strains to remain glued to the web, but life intrudes. I will be away from the net for the next 24hrs. Hopefully, there will be no new, or hidden negative developments to report.
My thoughts will be with the brave workers giving everything trying to save others.
AaronC
My thoughts will be with the brave workers giving everything trying to save others.
AaronC
Japan Nuclear Crisis - Current useful links
Here are the some of the links that I have located that have allowed me to form an educated opinion about what is occurring at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant.
bellona.org - Spent Fuel Cooling Ponds
IAEA Update page
NHK World
TEPCO News releases
NHK TV - English
Used Nuclear Fuel Storage at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
Japan radiation maximum by prefecture
BBC analysis
CNN iReport - unconfirmed
JAIF - Best technical details available as to current status of Fukushima
MIT
Mar 17 video close-up of plant
My opinion based on study of the the above and many other sources is as follows:
TEPCO and the Japanese Government are grossly under reporting the seriousness of this situation. The multiple meltdowns and malfunctioning cooling ponds are already producing so much radiation that it is impossible to complete any corrective action. The MOX fuel in #3, the hot unloaded fuel in #4, 5, & 6 cooling ponds, in conjunction with the triple core breach at 1, 2, & 3 have created a situation absolutely undreamed of by the entire nuclear community. I fear we will see more explosions in coming days, and columns of black smoke indicating corium burning in cores and pools. Any one plant starting to belch more radioactivity will stop even the present ineffective effort ...
If water circulation is not restored and maintained to the cooling ponds at units 5 and 6 then the situation gets even worse. Units 5 and 6 are larger and their ponds are chock full of hot uranium removed from the cores for inspection.
All in all, I see this crisis escalating quickly and soon.
Unfortunately, the Japanese Government and TEPCO seem determined to endlessly announce trucks standing by, on the way, retreating, cables laid to broken facilities, largely useless helicopter bombings, and other failed or planned efforts while hiding or not having the essential information about radiation counts, pool temperatures, and physical plant condition.
In my opinion, after the quake and tsunami Japan is left unable to deal with current refugees. If it widens the evacuation area, there is nowhere for the evacuees to go, or any resources to help them if they get there. I have seen reports that say that the 20-30km exclusion zone is a wasteland with no help for the earthquake/tsunami wracked areas or for the people told to remain sealed in their homes there.
For whatever reasons, Japan and TEPCO are not telling the truth. This situation is very, very bad, and is almost certainly going to get a lot worse.
AaronC
bellona.org - Spent Fuel Cooling Ponds
IAEA Update page
NHK World
TEPCO News releases
NHK TV - English
Used Nuclear Fuel Storage at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
Japan radiation maximum by prefecture
BBC analysis
CNN iReport - unconfirmed
JAIF - Best technical details available as to current status of Fukushima
MIT
Mar 17 video close-up of plant
My opinion based on study of the the above and many other sources is as follows:
TEPCO and the Japanese Government are grossly under reporting the seriousness of this situation. The multiple meltdowns and malfunctioning cooling ponds are already producing so much radiation that it is impossible to complete any corrective action. The MOX fuel in #3, the hot unloaded fuel in #4, 5, & 6 cooling ponds, in conjunction with the triple core breach at 1, 2, & 3 have created a situation absolutely undreamed of by the entire nuclear community. I fear we will see more explosions in coming days, and columns of black smoke indicating corium burning in cores and pools. Any one plant starting to belch more radioactivity will stop even the present ineffective effort ...
If water circulation is not restored and maintained to the cooling ponds at units 5 and 6 then the situation gets even worse. Units 5 and 6 are larger and their ponds are chock full of hot uranium removed from the cores for inspection.
All in all, I see this crisis escalating quickly and soon.
Unfortunately, the Japanese Government and TEPCO seem determined to endlessly announce trucks standing by, on the way, retreating, cables laid to broken facilities, largely useless helicopter bombings, and other failed or planned efforts while hiding or not having the essential information about radiation counts, pool temperatures, and physical plant condition.
In my opinion, after the quake and tsunami Japan is left unable to deal with current refugees. If it widens the evacuation area, there is nowhere for the evacuees to go, or any resources to help them if they get there. I have seen reports that say that the 20-30km exclusion zone is a wasteland with no help for the earthquake/tsunami wracked areas or for the people told to remain sealed in their homes there.
For whatever reasons, Japan and TEPCO are not telling the truth. This situation is very, very bad, and is almost certainly going to get a lot worse.
AaronC
Just what the world needs ... another blog.
The Japan nuclear crisis started me tweeting, and twitter's limitations quickly convinced me that I needed a place to provide more information. I will be covering areas of interest to me, starting with the current "nuclear event" in Japan.
I hope to provide accurate links to a group of information that will allow you to start making your own assessments based on knowledge rather than hysteria and media frenzy. I will also occasionally provide my own viewpoint or assessment.
Thanks for dropping by,
AaronC
I hope to provide accurate links to a group of information that will allow you to start making your own assessments based on knowledge rather than hysteria and media frenzy. I will also occasionally provide my own viewpoint or assessment.
Thanks for dropping by,
AaronC
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